Level 3
fenian wrote:
C1U7CH_P4ND4 wrote:Its going to be intresting as Europe pulls off in different directions on a country by country level, there may come a point where you have to ask if Europe is viable in its current form any longer?
He wont be able to pull off in a drastically different direction, he may be able to shape how cuts happen in his country but there is a 15 - 20% property price adjustment in france going to happen this year, or in lay terms a property bubble burst.
So far france has been calling the shots as a lender, they want their money back, soon they will need to be calling the shots as a borrower.
If they want any kind of compassion on the writing off of loans by germany and others, they will have to toe the line, Hollande knows it, the alternative is dumping the debt onto french taxpayers as tax, and seen as he is a union man this will be impossible for him to do without grinding the country to a halt.
His whole life as president will be trying to steer cuts and taxes away from powerful unions while asking europe for help. Very little will change except posturing with europe for better deals.
And thats why markets fell, because he seems to be in an impossible situation having made promises of sorts that he simply wont be able to keep.
Your right to be honest, if I'm correct the presidential election is seprate to that of the French parliment which hasnt happened yet. So this is by far no means a forgone conclusion that cuts will be stopped.
Level 3
It's not going to matter who is in parliament either.
France used to have more sway when they were seen as one of the lenders, they pushed for this because they wanted their money back.
France didnt realise that their economy was so close to the edge, and that its at the point of collapse, and now lots of these thing they wanted they will have to live up to themselves.
now they want it changed.
Its typical french arrogance, they pushed greece into the hands of the imf, when its their turn to repay?
Germany is still in the lender seat, and if germany lets france skip through, ireland, spain, portugal, greece will want to skip through, so then france will be bankrupted so will italy, and Uk probably anyway cause most of the debt in these countries is owed to france/germany/uk etc.
So really all the french parliment is try play a little hard ball, try get the cuts as low as they can, try to then organise the taxes and payments so they dont impact the unions.
If they do anything else, then germany will think the euro has failed, and dump trillions of debt on them, cause you can bet on your life germany has already planned that none of the debt will make it back to them if the euro fails.
We all acted like new money. Germany and a few others acted like old money.
Level 3
fenian wrote:It's not going to matter who is in parliament either.
France used to have more sway when they were seen as one of the lenders, they pushed for this because they wanted their money back.
France didnt realise that their economy was so close to the edge, and that its at the point of collapse, and now lots of these thing they wanted they will have to live up to themselves.
now they want it changed.
Its typical french arrogance, they pushed greece into the hands of the imf, when its their turn to repay?
Germany is still in the lender seat, and if germany lets france skip through, ireland, spain, portugal, greece will want to skip through, so then france will be bankrupted so will italy, and Uk probably anyway cause most of the debt in these countries is owed to france/germany/uk etc.
So really all the french parliment is try play a little hard ball, try get the cuts as low as they can, try to then organise the taxes and payments so they dont impact the unions.
If they do anything else, then germany will think the euro has failed, and dump trillions of debt on them, cause you can bet on your life germany has already planned that none of the debt will make it back to them if the euro fails.
We all acted like new money. Germany and a few others acted like old money.
I quite like modern day Germany. In the end they did get to control europe and no blood was shed...
fenian a écrit :It's not going to matter who is in parliament either.
France used to have more sway when they were seen as one of the lenders, they pushed for this because they wanted their money back.
France didnt realise that their economy was so close to the edge, and that its at the point of collapse, and now lots of these thing they wanted they will have to live up to themselves.
now they want it changed.
Its typical french arrogance, they pushed greece into the hands of the imf, when its their turn to repay?
Germany is still in the lender seat, and if germany lets france skip through, ireland, spain, portugal, greece will want to skip through, so then france will be bankrupted so will italy, and Uk probably anyway cause most of the debt in these countries is owed to france/germany/uk etc.
So really all the french parliment is try play a little hard ball, try get the cuts as low as they can, try to then organise the taxes and payments so they dont impact the unions.
If they do anything else, then germany will think the euro has failed, and dump trillions of debt on them, cause you can bet on your life germany has already planned that none of the debt will make it back to them if the euro fails.
We all acted like new money. Germany and a few others acted like old money.
i'm quite suprise of this great analyst .... Kudos for you 
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